Over the river and through the woods, to … a hotel near-ish Grandmother’s house we go?
A couple weeks ago I wrote about how and whether to book flights for the holidays. Since then, a few people have asked what I think holiday travel will be like this year. Will airports be packed? Or will caution prevail? Will airfare and hotel prices go up? Or will they remain at their current bargain-basement prices?
Only a fool would try to make predictions about the future at this point, so let’s call these “guesstimaybes.” I’ll use data and projections where possible, but even those can only perform so much better than a crystal ball these days.
Guesstimaybe #1: Airfare prices will go up, but not much
Based on research from the airfare search service Hopper, Yuletide airfare domestically is down 40% compared with 2019. And frankly, that doesn’t sound dramatic enough based on what I’m seeing. I remember talking to a friend last year about booking round-trip flights from Seattle to St. Louis in December for about $700. This year you can nab the same flight for $212 during the heart of the holiday season.
Yet the same report from Hopper found that 39% of survey respondents plan to travel for the holidays this year, three-quarters of whom plan to board a plane in December. And only 17% of these would-be holiday travelers have booked their flights yet.
In other words, there’s a lot of (potentially) pent-up demand. If those respondents who say they plan to travel but haven’t booked their tickets yet do so, we could see a big spike in prices, packed planes and long security lines. Unless you’re absolutely desperate for things to “return to normal,” that would be bad news.
My prediction: A lot of these plans are wishful thinking. Some COVID-19 models predict that things are due to get worse by December. But even if infection trends stay the same, visiting one’s relatives during the busiest travel season of the year will remain a relatively risky endeavor. I expect (and hope) many feet will turn cold as the weather does.
Guesstimaybe #2: Lodging in small cities will be pricey
Those with the desperate need for turkey or human companionship who are willing to fly this year will need somewhere to stay. Some, undoubtedly, will crash on the pullout sofa as usual. But many will want to find stand-alone lodging to protect themselves and their families. And that’s where things could get interesting.
I don’t expect hotel or vacation rental prices to go up much in large cities, which have plenty of rooms to accommodate business travelers (before they went extinct). Small and medium-sized cities, however, could see a supply crunch as more holiday travelers than usual seek their own rooms this year.
If I were planning to travel for the holidays and were visiting a small town, I’d book my room well in advance. And I’d make sure I could cancel it for free.
Guesstimaybe #3: Testing will be tight
“My family has it all planned out. We’re all going to get tested before we meet up, then form a contained ‘household’ together once everybody gets their negative results.”
That’s a great idea! The only problem is, everybody else has the same plan. Under normal circumstances I would say that those in charge of testing would predict this surge and plan accordingly, but … well … err … who knows?
Even if testing is available, it could get backlogged, meaning you wouldn’t receive results until you’re waiting for your flight home. I recommend making a plan that doesn't require last-minute, speedy test results.
Guesstimaybe #4: The holidays will be what we make them
The theme of 2020 seems to be “letting go,” and nowhere has this been hit over our collective heads more than trying to plan travel. Many of us are holding onto the idea that we can celebrate the holidays like we normally do: by flying home. But it might be time to let go of that notion.
Does that mean we have to sit in our homes alone and sadly pick at a microwaved turkey dinner? Not necessarily, though at least we wouldn’t have to listen to Uncle John rave about conspiracy theories.
Instead of holding onto how things were, we have the opportunity to forge new traditions this year. Traveling during the holidays has always been an expensive and stressful endeavor. Maybe it’s time we tried something else.
RELATED: Family travel five: New rules of the road for your packing list
1. The new essentials
Of course, you'll want to make sure everyone has their own supply of properly fitting masks. Most airlines require them so be sure to discuss this important detail with the kids if you plan to fly. Pack sanitizing wipes for use on the plane and to give the high-touch areas of your hotel room a once over. Gloves and extra hand sanitizer are useful for pumping gas. Consider bringing your own supply of pens for those moments when you might have to sign a credit card receipt, a rental car contract or for making your own lists. And, don't forget to sanitize after use.
2. Water bottles for all
You may find that drinking fountains have been closed in parks, restaurants and other public places. And, if a fountain is available, you may not be comfortable with cleanliness levels. Consider bringing your own larger bottles of water from which you can refill smaller bottles. Then resupply in your hotel room or other trusted location. Buying new bottles may be the most convenient option. It may not be the most eco-friendly solution, but better safe than sorry.
3. Bring a healthy snack supply
The Center for Disease Control and Prevention and other health officials continue to recommend that we avoid indoor or enclosed spaces for extended periods of time. Dining options may be limited or closed along your travel path. If possible, bring a cooler or backpack with as many healthy snacks as possible to avoid hungry (and cranky) travelers and the possibility of being forced into dining choices that are less than optimal.
4. Bathroom supplies
Finding easily accessible and pristine restrooms, including those with changing stations, may be a challenge. Many establishments have closed their restrooms to the public, given their own concerns about safe protocols. Consider stowing a supply of toilet paper and other personal supplies, including hand sanitizer, to take the stress out of finding a suitable bathroom stop.
5. Make the most of technology
Many hotels now provide contactless check-in, allowing guests to register in advance to avoid passing credit cards back and forth, signing documents and to minimize time in the lobby. Go online to access boarding passes, to order carry-out food and to reserve your space in line for any outing (think museums, some theme parks and golf tee times) that requires a guaranteed reservation. Of course, you'll still want to capture your vacation memories on video or in still images. But it's no longer advisable to ask a stranger to snap a family picture. You'll have to take turns or bring along a selfie stick to ensure that the precious moments are preserved.
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October 17, 2020 at 09:30AM
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